Yesterday’s record-breaking Q4 earnings report might have suggested the opposite, but reports from all three of the big market intelligence firms say that iPhone shipments fell year-on-year during the quarter.

Apple’s fiscal Q4/calendar Q3 numbers were all good. Revenue was $64B, which was at the very top end of the company’s guidance and well above Wall Street expectations. iPhone revenue was back up above 50% of total income, at $33.36B. And Tim Cook said that iPhone 11 sales were off to “a very, very good start.”

But there was one clue that all was not what it seems in what Cook didn’t say…

In explaining how Q4 revenue was so high, there was no mention of iPhone.

Cook then carefully slipped iPhone into his next sentence, which was about expecting better things ahead:

And smartphone reports from Canalys, IHS, and Strategy Analytics all conclude that iPhone shipments fell year-on-year, even if they differ on the exact numbers.

iPhone shipments fell by 2% to 7%

Canalys has the most pessimistic analysis, suggesting that Apple’s shipments fell 7%.

The firm thinks the rumored ‘iPhone SE 2’ (which won’t be any such thing) will help going forward.

Strategy Analytics puts the drop at 3%.

It thinks base-model iPhone 11 pricing will bring better news in the holiday quarter.

IHS has the most optimistic view, of a 2.1% fall.

It too believes more competitive pricing will do the job this quarter.

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